October 29, 2004
Global Cooling and Canadian Agriculture
The growing season of 2004 started with weather problems that did not ease. Cold wet conditions in early summer delayed seeding and put crops in jeopardy from even average fall frost dates. Manitoba had some of the coldest summer months on record and combined with untimely above average rain made very poor growing conditions. Lack of heat caused slow development of the late-planted crops. Random frost events occurred in July and August in more northerly growing areas. Then, fears for the delayed crops were fulfilled with widespread frosts in August generally three weeks earlier than average. It was similar to the summer of 1992 when the eruption of Pinatubo caused cooling.
Why are warmer temperatures the sole focus of global concern? What happens if it cools? You only have to lower Manitoba’s average annual temperature by 1° C and most current agriculture is almost impossible. Equally important for farmers, are precipitation amounts and distributions. How are they going to change? Nobody is studying these more serious issues because Environment Canada has taken a single scientifically unjustified position on climate change. Logic almost dictates we should plan for cooling. We can adjust to warming with techniques practiced to the south, but nobody is farming north of us.
Extremism diverts attention and pulls issues out of context. In the case of global warming, it has prevented science being science. Scientists speculate or hypothesize that if some assumptions hold then certain outcomes are possible. Other scientists then investigate, run experiments and seek evidence to test the theory. If the theory stands up it becomes a law, but this takes a long time.
Global warming theory, that is the idea that global temperature will rise if CO2 levels are increased, is barely 20 years old. It became fact so quickly that Professor Richard Lindzen said the consensus was reached before the research had begun. Research of ice cores show that the temperature changes before the CO2 not as theorized. Computer models incorporate this incorrect theory, so, not surprisingly their predictions are wrong yet they are the basis of all government policy.
Evidence grows that cooling is occurring. Satellites that measure the entire globe rather than less than the 30% covered by surface weather stations show slight cooling since 1978. Reports that the 1990s were the warmest decade in 2000 years have proved completely false. The warming that occurred from 1680 to 1940 was due to the sun, but then Environment Canada does not consider the sun a factor.
Tim Ball, Senior Fellow
has an extensive scientific background in climatology, especially the reconstruction of past climates and the impact of climate change on human history. He is a regular contributing writer for Country Guide magazine and a researcher/author of numerous papers on climate, long-range weather patterns, the impacts of climate change on sustainable agriculture, ecosystems, historical climatology, air quality, untapped energy resources, silting and flooding. He had a long academic career at the University of Winnipeg until he moved to Victoria in 1996. He has a BA from the University of Winnipeg, an MA from the University of Manitoba and a PH.D (Doctor of Science) from the University of London, England. On Dr. Ball as a climate change "denier" - more . . . and more . . .