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January 25, 2010


6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

Executive Summary

The 6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey expands coverage to 272 markets in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey employs the “Median Multiple” (median house price divided by gross annual median household income) to rate housing affordability (Table ES-1).

Historically, the Median Multiple has been remarkably similar among the nations surveyed, with median house prices being generally 3.0 or less times median household incomes. This affordability relationship continues in many housing markets of the United States and Canada. However, the Median Multiple has escalated sharply in Australia, Ireland, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and in some markets of Canada and the United States in recent years.

The Year in Review

Over the past year, housing affordability has improved in some markets, remained constant in others and declined in still others. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the “bubble” markets that had “burst” generally reached a trough and began rising again. In the “boom” markets that did not experience a bubble, house prices generally declined in response to the intense economic disruption that occurred after the Lehman Brother’s collapse, which signaled the “mortgage meltdown” and the “Great Recession,” the steepest economic decline since the Great Depression.
 
An Increase in Affordable Markets: Of the 272 markets surveyed, there were 103 affordable markets, 98 in the United States and 5 in Canada. This is an improvement from 87 in 2008. As before, the affordable markets include the three highest demand markets with more than 5,000,000 population in the high-income world, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Overall, 19 major markets (more than 1,000,000 residents) in the United States were also affordable (Table ES-2). As in the past, all of these markets were characterized by “more responsive” land use regulation, as opposed to “more prescriptive” land use regulation (see Table 2 in Section 1).
 
 
Severely Unaffordable Markets: There were 61 severely unaffordable markets this year, down from 64 in 2008. The least affordable markets were concentrated in Australia (22) the United Kingdom (19 and the United States (11). Nine of the 11 US severely unaffordable markets were in California. There were 5 severely unaffordable markets in New Zealand and 4 in Canada (Table ES-3). However, many of these severely unaffordable markets have experienced steep price declines in the last year. Among the major markets, Vancouver is the least affordable, with a Median Multiple of 9.3, followed by Sydney (9.1), Melbourne (8.0), Adelaide (7.4), London (7.1), New York (7.0) and San Francisco (7.0). As in the past, all of these markets were characterized by more prescriptive land use regulation (such as “compact city,” “urban consolidation,” “growth management” or “smart growth” policies), which materially increase the price of land, which makes housing unaffordable.
 
The national distribution of housing affordability is indicated in Table ES-4.
 
Infrastructure and Housing Affordability
 
One of the principal justifications for adoption of more prescriptive land use regulation has been the belief that the resulting higher population densities would reduce future infrastructure costs. However, higher densities require more intense infrastructure and the necessary upgrades are expensive. In fact, the higher housing costs typical of more prescriptively regulated markets far exceed any conceivable increase in infrastructure costs from allowing demand-driven housing expansion.

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Author's Picture Wendell Cox, Senior Fellow, is principal of Wendell Cox Consultancy, an international public policy, demographics and transport consulting firm. He has developed a leadership role in urban transport and land use and the firm maintains three internet websites: www.demographia.com, www.publicpurpose.com and www.rentalcartours.net . Wendell Cox has completed projects in Canada, the United States, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Europe and Africa. He is author of "War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life" and a co-author with Richard Vedder of "The Wal-Mart Revolution: How Big-Box Stores Benefit Consumers, Workers, and the Economy." He was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission which oversaw highways and public transit in the largest county in the United States. He was also appointed to the Amtrak Reform Council. Wendell Cox is visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers (a national university) in Paris.


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How Hot Will It Get?
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March 18, 2010 — Calgary

Democratization of the Capital Markets
with S. Mark Francis, Business Consultant/ Stock Exchange Advisor
March 24, 2010 — Winnipeg

Free Agent Nations: The Rise of Independent Contractors over Employees
with Ken Phillips, Co-Founder and Executive Director,Independent Contractors of Australia and Author of Independence and the Death of Employment (Connor Court)
March 30, 2010 — Saskatoon

Beyond the Indian Act: Restoring Aboriginal Property Rights
with Dr. Tom Flanagan, Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary and, André Le Dressay, Director of Fiscal Realities
April 5, 2010 — Regina
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Beyond the Indian Act: Restoring Aboriginal Property Rights
with C.T. (Manny) Jules, Chief Commissioner, First Nations Tax Commission &, Dr. Tom Flanagan, Professor of Political Science, University of Calgary
April 6, 2010 — Winnipeg



Upcoming FCPP Appearances

Transparency and Accountability in the Public Sector - Panel #3
Speaker: Joseph Quesnel, Policy Analyst
Date: March 20, 2010
Time: 4:35 pm (approx.)
Place: John Dutton Theatre - Calgary Public Library

Hosted by the Macdonald-Cartier Society. For more details contact Immanuel Giulea at 514.577.2669 or immanuel@macdonaldcartier.com

Organizational Structure & Design HPG
Speaker: Peter Holle, President
Date: March 25, 2010
Time: 7 - 9:00 p.m.
Place: University of Manitoba, Room E2-160 Engineering Building

A discussion on creating high performance policy by maximizing transparency, neutrality and separation; distinguishing between private and public goods; and locating services at the most appropriate level of government. University grad school lecture, not open to public.

Manitoba Policy Blueprint for the Future
Speaker: Peter Holle, President
Date: March 30, 2010
Time: 8:45 a.m.
Place: Winnipeg Realtors, 1240 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg

Booming Saskatchewan is on the verge of matching Alberta's flat income tax. Beleaguered Ontario is pushing to trim transfer payments. Alberta is under pressure to slash public spending and reform healthcare. Sales tax harmonization is happening in most provinces. How can Manitoba avoid being left in the dust in these turbulent times? Frontier's Peter Holle maps out how western Canada's only "have not" province can pull itself out of the slow lane. For more details contact: Shaila Wise at 786-8854 or swise@winnipegrealtors.ca



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